Donald Trump is in “a historically strong position” to win the GOP 2024 nomination and in “a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle,” CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said in a new analysis.
Despite his mounting legal woes, Trump is the front-runner in the GOP primary by more than 30 percentage points, and he “remains competitive in a potential rematch with President Joe Biden,” Enten noted.
The 2024 election will “probably come down to a few swing states,” he said.
And “one giant warning sign” for Biden was a June Quinnipiac University poll from Pennsylvania, which “barely voted for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020.”
“Trump was up on Biden by 1 point in the Quinnipiac poll — a result within the margin of error, but nevertheless a remarkable achievement for the former president,” said Enten.
“Things can most certainly change,” Enten acknowledged. “But for now, the chance that Trump is president in less than two years’ time is a very real possibility.”
Read the full analysis here.